Sunday, September 14, 2008

KLCI Fibonacci Analysis

The KLCI is still in a down trend. Based on Fibonacci analysis, the index is set to drop below 1000 points.

Lets do a Fibonacci analysis on the recent down move. From Point A to Point B, the index dropped from 1436 to 1157. The rebound to Point C (1305) retraces 50% of the move from A to B. Since the index did not clear Point A, the down trend was still in place and the projected objective point rests at 1026 which is calculated from the following:

Objective Point = 1305 – (1436-1157)
= 1026

This objective point was near Point D of 1089.

The current up move from Point D to E did not clear the 38.2% retracement level. The objective point for this move will be:

Objective Point = 1164 – (1305-1089)
= 948

Hence based on Fibonacci analysis, the index is likely to go below 1000 points.

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