Friday, December 31, 2010

EURUSD Warning Signs

EURUSD is making a comeback for the past few trading days.  It has risen above its 20 day moving average which is a positive indication.  The MACD indicator is still above its signal line showing that bulls still have the upper hand.  But we should not lose sight of the big picture.  If you look at the down swing from 25 Nov 2009 to 7 Jun 2010, the currency pair traded from its low in Jun 2010 to re-trace around 61.8% of the complete down swing.  This coincides with the Fibnoacci Retracement rule and it still shows that the long term trend for this currency is still to the downside.  However, we cannot ignore the fact that the currency is making higher lows and higher highs for the past few months.  The danger is for the currency pair to fall below 1.30 level.  This will violate the higher high and higher pattern.  The 2 day RSI is approaching overbought levels and we will likely see the price testing its 20 day moving average in the next few trading days.  

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Coastal Contracts Bhd Weakness Ahead


Coastal Contracts Bhd has been in a trading range between RM 2.4 and RM 2.1 for the past few months.  It’s stock price has bounced off the lower boundary of the 20 day Bollinger band.  The 20 day moving average is sloping downwards and will act as resistance for any up move.  This resistance is currently at RM 2.2.  The 2 day RSI is approaching overbought levels.  This coupled with the fact that the MACD indicator is still below its signal line implies that the stock is unlikely to stay in overbought levels for long.   The stock is unlikely to break the RM 2.2 resistance level and a test of RM 2.1 is likely in the next few trading session.  

Thursday, December 9, 2010

How To Identify Strong Or Weak Stocks

In momentum trading, traders pick the strong stocks to go long and weak stocks to go short.    However the key question here is how do you determine if a stock is a strong stock or a weak stock?

You should be able to tell from the price chart if a stock is looking strong.  For example if a stock keeps making higher low and higher high, it falls into the strong stock category.  By the same token, if the stock is making lower high and lower low, it is considered a weak stock.

A more mathematical method is to compute the distance between the current closing price and its 52 week’s price high and price low to determine which is the stronger and weaker stock trading in the market. 

The formula is as follows:

            Strength = (52 week high – closing price)/52 week high
           
            Weakness = (closing price – 52 week low)/52 week low

If you compute the Strength and Weakness value for every stock trading in the exchange and sort it based on its Strength and Weakness, you get a list of strong and weak stocks respectively.

Based on the 7 Dec 2010 closing price of the 500 stocks in the S&P500 index, the list of strong stocks is:
Symbol StrengthCloseSectorIndustry
CVX0.00380923786.30000305Basic materialsMajor integrated oil and gas
IFF0.00594597955.16999817Basic materialsSpecialty chemicals
PX0.00843165594.08000183Basic materialsSynthetics
PPG0.00666750180.44999695ConglomeratesConglomerates
HRL0.00359282149.91999817Consumer goodsMeat products
MKC0.00809718946.54999924Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CCE0.00890780625.59000015Consumer goodsBeverages - soft drinks
XRX0.00918969211.85999966Consumer goodsBusiness equipment
AMP0.00690158154.68000031Financial Asset management
AON0.00772201143.68999863Financial Insurance brokers
MMC0.00897195426.51000023Financial Insurance brokers
TMK0.00924573761.08000183Financial Life insurance
BIIB0.00297128167.11000061HealthcareBiotech
KG0.00421055614.18999958HealthcareDrug manfacturers - others
BDX0.00598516581.37999725HealthcareMedical instruments and supplies
ROP0.00273446276.58999634Industrial goodsIndustrial equipment and components
PLL0.00717070848.45999908Industrial goodsDiversified machinery
SNA0.00765670155.72999954Industrial goodsSmall tools and accessories
ROK0.00840940669.56999969Industrial goodsIndustrial electrical equipment
FISV0.00170158758.66999817ServicesBusiness services
CHRW0.00416937776.43000031ServicesAir delivery and freight services
COST0.00599483669.63999939ServicesDiscount variety stores
EXPD0.00635594356.27999878ServicesAir delivery and freight services
MCD0.00741297480.33999634ServicesRestaurants
ESRX0.00822971454.22999954ServicesManagement services
AKAM0.00496415654.11999893TechnologyInternet information providers
ADI0.00682052337.86000061TechnologySemiconductor - integrated circuits
TXN0.00683708533.40999985TechnologySemiconductor - broad line
CPWR0.00702369811.31000042TechnologyApplication software
A0.00791972637.58000183TechnologyScientific and technical instruments


The list of weak stocks is:


Symbol WeaknessCloseSectorIndustry
EOG0.0870865592.70999908Basic materialsIndependent oil and gas
CLX0.08050809562.18000031ConglomeratesConglomerates
DF0.0364656037.389999866Consumer goodsDairy products
K0.05135315148.90999985Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CAG0.05735973522.01000023Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
GIS0.06624477435.04000092Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
CL0.07645490478.16999817Consumer goodsPersonal products
CPB0.07965226133.90000153Consumer goodsProcessed and packaged goods
BAC0.06146789911.56999969Financial Regional - Mid atlantic banks
HCBK0.06945187511.97999954Financial Savings and loans
PBCT0.07049185413.06000042Financial Savings and loans
FHN0.08261807810.09000015Financial Regional - Southeast banks
AMGN0.05710312153.13000107HealthcareBiotechnology
ISRG0.059337495260.6499939HealthcareMedical appliances and equipment
ABT0.06028401846.88999939HealthcareDrug manufacturers - major
THC0.0765305384.21999979HealthcareHospitals
ZMH0.08644910250.27000046HealthcareMedical appliances and equipment
LLY0.0943565734.11000061HealthcareDrug manufacturers - major
LMT0.03704691969.44999695Industrial goodsAerospace/Defense products and services
PHM0.0831973486.639999866Industrial goodsResidential construction
BIG0.00246564628.45999908ServicesDiscount variety stores
SVU0.0158536738.329999924ServicesGrocery stores
SAI0.06724949615.86999989ServicesTechnical services
RSH0.08426838118.94000053ServicesElectronics stores
KR0.09389048220.68000031ServicesGrocery stores
CSCO0.02052628419.38999939TechnologyNetworking and communication devices
NRG018.85000038UtilitiesElectric Utilities
CEG0.01125598128.29999924UtilitiesElectric Utilities
ETR0.02268771970.41000366UtilitiesElectric Utilities
FE0.09086452735.56000137UtilitiesElectric Utilities

You can derive some basic information based on the list.  For example, the Utilities sector is not doing well whereas Technology sector has more strong stocks.  

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Investment Madness

We are all prone to having psychological preconceptions or biases that make us behave in certain ways. These biases influence how we assimilate the information we come in contact with on a daily basis. They also have an impact on how we utilize that information to make decisions.

Our very own psychological biases have an impact on our investment decisions and affect our attempts at building wealth.

Psychological Bias
Effect on Investment Behavior
Consequence
Overconfidence
Trade too much. Take too much risk and fail to diversify
Pay too much in commissions and taxes. Susceptible to big losses
Attachment
Become emotionally attached to a security and see it through rose-colored glasses

Susceptible to big losses
Endowment
Want to keep the securities received
Not achieving a match between your investment goals and your investments

Status Quo
Hold back on changing your portfolio
Failure to adjust asset allocation and begin contributing to retirement plan

Seeking Pride
Sell winners too soon
Lower return and higher taxes

Avoiding Regret
Hold losers too long
Lower return and higher taxes

House Money
Take too much risk after winning
Susceptible to big losses

Snake Bit
Take too little risk after losing
Lose chance for higher return in the long term

Get Even
Take too much risk trying to get break even

Susceptible to big losses
Social Validation
Feel that it must be good if others are investing in the security
Participate in price bubble which ultimately causes you to buy high and sell low

Mental Accounting
Fail to diversify
Not receiving the highest return possible for the level of risk taken

Cognitive Dissonance
Ignore information that conflicts with prior beliefs and decisions
Reduces your ability to evaluate and monitor your investment choices

Representativeness
Think things that seem similar must be alike. So a good company must be a good investment

Purchase overpriced stocks
Familiarity
Think companies that you know seem better and safer
Failure to diversify and put too much faith in the company in which you work


If you want to read more regarding human psychology and how it affects our trading and investment, please read the book “Investment Madness How Psychology Affects Your Investing and What to Do About It” by JOHN R NOFSINGER

Sunday, November 14, 2010

KLCI Taking A Breather


US market continued to fall on Friday with the Dow Industrial Average closing down 90 over points at the close. The drop was not as bad as initially thought and it is not as drastic as the drop we saw in China’s market. However, the negative momentum will set a negative tone on next week’s trading.

The KLCI has dropped for the past 2 trading session and the index looks set to test it’s 50 day moving average.

MACD is beginning to turn bearish with the indicator below its signal line. –DI is about to go above +DI which implies that the current up trend is likely to take a break.

Judging from the technical charts, the index is likely to drop below its 50 day moving average. The question then will be whether there is going to be a change in trend or just a pause in the rally.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

2B Breakout System

The 2 bar breakout system is designed to capture short term trends by going long or short depending on the pattern formed by the 2 most recent price bars. The essence of this method is to look for reversal of the immediate directional momentum.

The rules of this method are:

Long trades

Enter:
1. Today’s low is less than the previous day low
2. Today’s high is less than the previous day high
3. Today’s close is less than the open
4. Go long at the next trading bar if the price goes above today’s high + 1 tick

Exit:
1. Use a trailing stop at previous day’s low

Short trades

Enter:
1. Today’s low is greater than the previous day low
2. Today’s high is greater than the previous day high
3. Today’s close is greater than the open
4. Go short at the next trading bar if the price goes below today’s low - 1 tick

Exit:
1. Use a trailing stop at previous day’s high

To see this method in action, let’s try it out on AUDUSD currency pair.

For long trades, the trading record is as such:


This method generates 23 trading signals from May 2009 till Oct 2010. Of the 23 trades, 14 were profitable (not considering transaction cost). That gives a winning probability of 60.87%.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Coastal Contracts Bhd - Moving Up


Commodities have a bright future given the fact that further quantitative easing in US will ultimately lead to inflation. This means that there is further catalyst in the pipeline for commodity price to move up.


Companies like Coastal Contracts Bhd looks set to benefit from the commodity up tick. The stock price has been moving in a consolidation range and is now close to the RM2.40 resistance level. ADX is beginning to move up and this coincides with the gain in momentum.


MACD indicator has moved above its signal line and stochastic chart is still in bullish territory. I will look to buy the counter if it manages to break the RM2.40 resistance level. Support is at RM2.20 level.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

MISC - Potential To Test RM9.1


MISC hit a high of RM9.1 on 14 Sep 2010. While the ability to reach a high of RM9.1 was a bullish move, the candlestick ended on the weak side with an inverted hammer pattern. When this pattern appears during an uptrend, it usually points to weakness for the next few days. This was evident from the price chart.

The price of the stock is now near its 50 day moving average. With the 2 day RSI forming an up tick, it is likely for the stock to move up in the next few days. However, the bearish crossover in the MACD chart points to a potential of a further down swing. Support is at RM8.7 level and resistance is at RM9.1 level. So long as the stock stays above its 50 day moving average, the bulls are safe.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

QSR In Healthy Pullback


QSR had a good run after breaking through the trading band between RM3.0 and RM3.70. The share price looks to be hitting resistance with the price chart forming a double top pattern. The moving average is still showing an intact uptrend, with the price firmly above its 50 day moving average. The +DI is still above –DI with ADX pulling back after a strong up move. This suggests that price in the short term will most likely weaken but that is to be expected after a strong move. The 2 day RSI is on its way to oversold levels. MACD indicator looks to be going flat. Support level is at RM4.00 level and resistance is at recent high of RM4.60.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Genting Berhad - Continuation Of Uptrend


Genting Berhad tested the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of RM8.51 on 23 Aug and it has managed to pierce through the RM9.00 level. This is a bullish sign. Based on Fibonacci projection, the current move indicates a 61.8% projection target of RM9.32.

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About the Author

Douglas Smith is a professional day trader. He uses a combination of manual and automated strategies. His automated trading strategies are shared at his blog Forex Autotrading Insights.


Website: http://www.forexautotradinginsights.com/

Monday, August 23, 2010

Genting Berhad Still Bullish - Buy On Pullback


Genting Berhad had a great run after breaking through the resistance level at RM 8.10. It went on the hit a high of RM 9.01 before retracing some of its move. Judging from the technical charts, the down swing looks more like a healthy pullback and the up trend is still intact.

The 2 day RSI is decreasing after hitting overbought level and is not approaching the oversold threshold. The price level is about to hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of RM 8.51 which may encourage some buying. A strong support level appears at RM 8.10 level.

This may be a chance to get into the counter at a cheaper level.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Bullish On Malaysia Stock Market


The KLCI has an impressive run after breaking through the resistance level of 1370. The dip on 12 Aug couldn’t bring the index down its support level of 1340. This resulted in a technical rebound which has brought the index above the 1370 mark.

The short term Guppy multiple moving averages (GMMA) have also started to spread out. This indicates buying by the short term trader. It is likely that the rally is brought about by covering of short positions. The long term GMMA is also showing no signs of giving up its bullish bias. Long term investors are still staying with their long positions.

The 2 day RSI is on the high side which indicates a short term overbought conditions. Given the performance of US market overnight, we may see some profit taking. Any correction may be a chance to re-enter the market at a lower price.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Swing Trading With Stochastics – the Essential Momentum Indicator

Author: Sacha Tarkovsky


Markets don’t trend all the time - there are periods where they tend to be in channels, and consolidating. These are the markets where swing trading can work well.

This article is an introduction to swing trading, and highlights the best timing indicator - to time you swing trades for big profits.

What is Swing Trading?

Swing trading sits in the middle, between day trading, and trend following - and swing trades normally last a few days. The swing trader will enter a position one way, and exit with a profit - and enter a possible position the other way.

The Swing Traders Best Market

For the swing trader, it’s best to trade, when a market is going nowhere fast.

Swing trading does not work in strong bull and bear markets - where price moves strongly in one direction - without a swing in the other direction, the swing trader will lose.

The problem with both swing trading, and long-term trend trading, is that success is based on identifying what type of market we’re looking at - i.e. bull, bear, or a period of consolidation.

Once you’ve identified a market as moving in a sideways channel - then it’s time to look for swing trading opportunities.

The Best Tool for Swing Traders

The best tool by far - the “stochastic indicator” - which is ideal for swing trading. The stochastic indicator is a momentum oscillator, which can warn of strength, or weakness in the market - often in advance of a final turning point.

The logic of the stochastic is based on the assumption, that when a market is rising, it will tend to close near the high - and when a market falls, it tends to close near its lows.

The Calculation

The stochastic oscillator as developed by Dr. George Lane, is plotted as two lines called %K, a fast line and %D, a slow line.

· %K line is more sensitive than %D

· %D line is a moving average of %K

· %D line gives the trading signals

Although this sounds confusing, it’s actually very similar to the plotting of moving averages.

For example, take %K as a fast moving average, and %D as a slow moving average.

The lines are plotted on a 1 to 100 scale. "Trigger" lines are normally drawn on stochastics charts at the 80% and 20% levels – this indicates when markets are overbought, or oversold.

Using Stochastics

The 80% value traditionally is used as an overbought warning signal, while the 20% is used as an oversold warning signal.

The signals are most reliable if you wait until the %K, and %D lines turn upward, below 5% before buying - and in reverse, above 95% before selling.

For swing trading, look to trade the crossover confirmations.

For example, buy when the %K line rises above the %D line, and sell when the %K line falls below the %D line.

Beware of short-term crossovers that may generate false signals. The best crossover is when the %K line intersects, “after” the peak of the %D line (a right-hand crossover).

Don’t worry if the above confuses you - you don’t need to understand the logic. When you look at stochastics on a chart, all you're looking for is the visual signals - not the calculation behind them.

Do some research and practice, before trying swing trading with stochastics - but if you want an indicator to help you swing trade, and make some big profits - check stochastics out.

Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/investing-articles/swing-trading-with-stochastics-the-essential-momentum-indicator-81690.html



About the Author

1,000 Pages Of Wealth Building Material FREE!

Including tips, strategies and systems and more on currency trading info. Visit our web site at

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Friday, August 13, 2010

Mortgage Rates Predictions - What the Charts Are Telling Us

Author: Ed Lathrop

Mortgage rates have a lot to do with how well the economy is performing. When mortgage rates go up, people can no longer afford to invest money in new properties. This, of course, brings a slow down to the building trade and it also means less money will be flowing through the economy.

On the other hand, when mortgage rates go down, more people are able to buy homes. The further down rates fall, the lower the income needed to buy homes. When homes are being bought, the building trade flourishes and this stimulates the economy in many ways.

Remember high interest rates?

It's been 20 years since we've seen double-digit mortgage interest rates. Going back to the late '70s and early '80s, double-digit mortgage rates were the norm. It wasn't until about 1985 after the Reagan administration had put an end to stagflation and the misery index that haunted the Carter years, that mortgage rates found buoyancy at around 7%.

Since that time, mortgage rates have fluctuated between 9% and about 5.5%. All in all, it has been a long stable interest rate environment that we have enjoyed over these past years.

Higher or lower?

Now, the question is where do interest rates go from here. By reading the charts, we will attempt to predict their future movement, just as if we were reading the commodities charts to get a handle on which way the price of soybeans were headed. Then, we're going to make a prediction about another commodity that is sure to be shocking!

At this time, it is wise to make a disclaimer. First, no one can truly predict the future and second, any world event can change what the future looks like now in a heartbeat. Also, you can't overlook the fact these unforeseen world events can happen out of the blue. With that behind us, let's take a look at charts.

The past 18 years

Throughout the '90s, interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages ranged between 9% and 7%. At the time George W. Bush took office, the average 30-year mortgage rate was 8.75 %. From here, it eased downward steadily through the first George W. Bush term. It actually hit a low of 4.75% in late 2003. Here, interest rates ranged between 6.5% and about 5.5% for the next 3 years. This was an uncommonly stable interest rate environment and it was one of the reasons the housing market became red hot, and yes, overbought.

In 2006, the trend broke above 5.5% to about 6.5%, but rates never went any higher. Now, the interest rates are hovering around six percent and trending downward.

Reading the charts

The technical trader, that is, one who trades commodities by reading charts, would certainly believe interest rates, since they are heading downward, would have to once again test the low of 4.75%. It will be important to see if a double bottom is made at 4.75%. If this bottom is made, interest rates will go up.

Because of underlying fundamentals of the market, for instance the Fed trying to lower interest rates to stimulate the housing market, it seems much more likely interest rates will break through the 4.75% low once they arrive there. If they do, a new downward trend will be on the way. Just how much lower interest rates could get, is anybody's guess. However, it certainly isn't out of the question we could see 4% 30-year fixed mortgage rates sometime before this downward trend ends.

4%!

Historically speaking, 4% is a very low interest rate, but at this time it truly looks like we are much more apt to see 4% than a higher number, like 7%. So, for what it's worth, this is my prediction. We will see the interest rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage somewhere down around 4% before an inflationary aspect of the economy takes over.

Where you think this inflationary aspect will come from? Well, here is another prediction and you may find it more astounding than the first one!

The impossible dream

It's all over for the crude oil rally. Crude oil is overbought! There is no reason for crude oil to be trading above $100 a barrel. Like the tech stock boom of the '90s and the housing market bubble of a couple years ago, it is a rally that cannot be sustained forever!

It's anybody's guess as to what the true market value of crude oil is right now. However, to think it is somewhere between $50 and $60 a barrel would be logical. However, when prices fall they tend to go through the true market value before they float back up to it.

If this crude oil market bubble burst follows the same modus operandi normal market bubble bursts follow, I can't see why it is impossible to see $35 a barrel crude oil again; at least for a little while.

What would this mean for the price of gas? Maybe $1.49 a gallon? Well this may seem totally out of whack with what we're hearing constantly coming from our news reports day and night, don't think it can't happen.

Back to reality

Certainly, there will be a time when $100 will not be too high a price for a barrel of crude oil. There will come a time when $3.50 is not too much for a gallon of gas. However, the charts are telling us that time is not here yet.

So, cheap gas, like the JFK, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush tax cuts will stimulate the economy, and like the Bill Clinton Tariff agreements, it will make the cost of living lower which will make more goods affordable to the public. These things, though healthy for the economy, will bring on some inflation and this will break the interest rate downtrend.

I know these predictions seem pretty goofy and maybe they are! Still, my strategy is to believe they will happen and if they don't, at least I'll be happy believing them for now. Then again, if they do happen, we'll all be happy!


About the AuthorEd Lathrop has developed EZ Calculator, which shows you how to save $100,000 on your mortgage and "How To Pay Off Your Credit Car Debt Quick." Plus many more calculators aimed at helping people get their finances in order! Come visit this free Website at: Free Financial Calculator. Also get a free amortization schedule or as many free amortization schedules as you want at:Amortization Schedules Free

Sunday, July 4, 2010

KLCI Direction


KLCI index hit a wall of resistance this week together with the stock market around the world.

Compared to other indexes around the world, KLCI is having a stronger performance. The index is still above its 200 day moving average and the death cross scenario where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average has not occurred.

However, there are warning signs in the technical chart.

Firstly, the MACD indicator is about to go below its signal line. The RSI indicator is decreasing but has not reached oversold values. This means that there is a short term weakness in the index. Stochastic chart is also showing weakness in the near term.

ADX is now at around 20 levels and looks to be ticking up. –DI is now slightly above the +DI. This suggests that the index is likely to continue moving down but the strength of the down move will not be strong unless we see a higher ADX value in the coming week.

All in all, the index will continue to go down in the coming weeks or at best be range bound. Do trade with care.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

AirAsia Updates


Share price for AirAsia is now at a crossroad.

The MACD indicator is still bullish with the indictor above its signal line. However a worrying sign is a weakening MACD histogram. This shows that the upward move is losing momentum. And from the price chart, we can see that the chart is now looking to form a lower low. RSI is at neutral level. Stochastic indicator is showing weakness in the short term.

The price action is showing weakness as well. The stock price could not hold above the downtrend line and is now about the test the support line.

Critical support is at RM1.25 level. The resistance level is at RM1.35.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Genting Weakness Ahead


The chart for Genting is indicating weakness in the short term. This is in line with bearish conditions for the past few weeks.

The MACD indicator has just cut below its signal line, indicating that the bears are gaining the upper hand.

The price has pulled back towards its 50 day moving average and this will be a critical level to watch. If the price is not able to hold onto the 50 day moving average, bears may increase their selling pressure and it will violate the up sloping trend line that began in the month of Mar.

Any rebound will meet with selling pressure at RM7.06

Saturday, May 15, 2010

KLCI Update


KLCI has been holding well even though Europe has caused stock markets world wide to embark on a correction mode.

The index is facing resistance at 1350 level. It has tested this level 3 times for the past 1.5 months and has not been able to break through.

The –DI is now above +DI indicating weakness in the price action. However with ADX below 20 levels, there is no sign of a strong downtrend developing.

MACD indicator is just slightly below its signal line which is a bearish signal.

Gathering the evidences painted by the charts, index looks set to weaken next week. However possibility of a strong downtrend developing is still not present. The next support level is around 1310

Monday, April 26, 2010

KLCI Sell In May And Go Away

The stock market has a famous saying of “Sell in May and go away”. Should you be doing it this year?

A look at the KLCI index from 1994 to 2010 shows that there is a 50-50 chance that the market will go down from May to Oct. The performance of the KLCI index is shown in the table below


Entry DateEntry PriceExit DateExit Price% Change
4-May-941040.444-Oct-941126.348.26
3-May-95944.553-Oct-95983.754.15
3-May-961184.972-Oct-961135.53-4.17
5-May-971099.392-Oct-97794.10-27.77
5-May-98627.562-Oct-98366.88-41.54
4-May-99681.754-Oct-99680.33-0.21
3-May-00900.143-Oct-00704.24-21.76
3-May-01615.982-Oct-01613.00-0.48
3-May-02795.122-Oct-02648.53-18.44
5-May-03627.622-Oct-03738.9817.74
6-May-04845.744-Oct-04855.741.18
4-May-05895.504-Oct-05924.983.29
3-May-06950.993-Oct-06968.931.89
4-May-071346.372-Oct-071361.031.09
5-May-081274.136-Oct-081013.39-20.46
4-May-09999.442-Oct-091204.2020.49
-76.74


If you buy into the KLCI on May 2009 and sell on Oct 2009 instead, you would have seen gains of 20.49%. However if you sum up the performance from 1994 to 2010, you will be down 76.74%.

So should you be a buyer this May or seller? Personally, I will not be a buyer as my feel is the index will not see double digit percentage gains and the risk of a correction is high.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

AirAsia - Still in a downtrend


AirAsia rebounded for the last 3 session. However, the bearish pattern formed by the 10 day, 20 day and 30 day moving averages is still intact.

The rebound can be viewed as a technical rebound and the fact that it is not able to clear it's 20 day and 30 day moving averages is a sign that the bears are still in control.

There is a high possibility that the price will test RM1.27 in the next few sessions. If this level is taken out, the next support is at RM1.22 level.

All bets are off if price moves above RM1.37.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd


Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd was down 28 cents on Friday’s trading session. It closed at RM 16.62, just below it’s 8 day moving average.

So where do we go from here?

The US market did not move much on Friday night. The Dow ended at 10,624 up 12.85 points. The indecisive market action will not bring much cheer to market participant.

For Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, the technical charts are showing a slightly bearish picture.

Firstly, the –DI is above the +DI which suggests weakness. However, the ADX is still at very low levels suggesting that a sustained down trend is not in the cards.

The MACD indicator is making a bearish crossover, moving below it’s signal line.

One way to play this stock is to short the counter on the next trading session at price that is slightly above RM 16.62, the low set on Friday. The stop loss should be at the RM 17 level.

The 2 day RSI for this counter is going downwards and is approaching oversold levels. The next one or two session will be weak for this stock and if you can short at RM 16.62, there may be a chance to walk away with a slight profit.

Good luck and happy trading!

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Genting Bhd

US market had a good performance on Friday with the Dow Industrial Average moving up 122 points to end the week at 10566. Volume on Friday was far from impressive showing a lack of participation among the traders.

Now let’s look at one interesting counter, GENTING BHD.


The technical picture was pretty bleak in the beginning of the week. The counter broke through it’s 200 day moving average and showed no signs of rebounding. However, the counter sprang into life on Friday and the counter is now testing it’s 200 day moving average once more.

The MACD indicator made a bullish crossover and is a good sign for the bulls in the short term.

The RSI indicator is not at oversold levels yet, suggesting that the up move still has some legs left.

However the –DI is still above the +DI with the ADX turning down. This suggests a slowing down of the down trend.

Given the current market conditions, I would be a seller if the counter managed to get to RM 7.00.

Sunday, January 24, 2010

US Stock Market - More Weakness Ahead


Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq index broke below their uptrend line on Friday. Volume has been picking up and this suggests real selling and not just profit taking.

The recent weakness started off from China when news broke that banks have been told to suspend lending. Although the suspension was not system wide, the market reacted nevertheless with Shanghai index moving down more then 3% and Dow closed nearly 1.1% lower. Adding to the uncertainty was US President Barack Obama proposal to overhaul US banks in order to avoid future financial crisis.

Technical charts are looking weak with MACD below its signal line and –DI above the +DI together with an increasing ADX value.

The support level for Dow is near the 10,000 level which is where the Fibonacci retracement is located. Expect to have more weakness next week.