Lets look at AirAsia today. This stock was on a downtrend from early July to Sep where a bottom was formed on 27 Sep 2012. The rebound took the stock to RM3.19 around the 38.2% retracement level. The rebound was on a lower volume meaning that investors are not convinced that we have seen the worst of the downswing.
A look at the GMMA indicator shows this picture. The long term investors are not coming in to support the stock. The separation of the long term moving averages are well spaced out. With long term investors looking at further downside, there is only so much that the short term investors can do to prop up the stock.
There is a high probability that the stock will re-visit the RM2.81 level. If this level holds and the stock is able to clear the resistance of RM3.19, then there is a chance of a change in trend. Currently, the bears should still have the upper hand.