KLCI July Performance

June is coming to an end. This is the historical performance of the KLCI index from 1994 onwards.

Entry Date	Entry Price	Exit Date	Exit Price	% Change	Draw Down %	Max Gain %	Bars Held
7/1/1994	1008.43	8/1/1994	1029.58	2.1	-3.2446	2.0973	21
7/3/1995	1025.85	8/1/1995	1059.91	3.32	-1.0391	4.9647	21
7/1/1996	1135.81	8/1/1996	1067.39	-6.02	-7.6404	0.4543	22
7/1/1997	1077.30	8/1/1997	1012.78	-5.99	-8.2456	0.7537	22
7/1/1998	454.73	8/3/1998	403.41	-11.29	-15.1211	6.8634	22
7/1/1999	819.70	8/2/1999	768.92	-6.19	-8.6605	6.184	22
7/3/2000	830.13	8/1/2000	799.59	-3.68	-5.4425	4.2198	21
7/2/2001	591.66	8/1/2001	660.06	11.56	-1.1814	12.7523	22
7/1/2002	727.73	8/1/2002	721.33	-0.88	-2.0365	3.1056	23
7/1/2003	691.93	8/1/2003	721.06	4.21	-0.1431	6.6466	23
7/1/2004	820.47	8/2/2004	832.69	1.49	-0.0073	4.6181	22
7/1/2005	888.18	8/1/2005	938.30	5.64	0	6.0427	21
7/3/2006	914.61	8/1/2006	935.41	2.27	-1.6816	2.717	21
7/2/2007	1357.78	8/1/2007	1367.29	0.7	-1.0348	2.5335	22

There is a total of 8 profitable and 6 losing "July" months.

Dow Update

US market was hammered again on Friday. The Dow closed at 11346. From the 5 minute chart of the Dow, we can see that the index was attacked by the Bears from the opening bell.


The only positive sign is a bounce off the lower Bollinger band at around 1.45pm. The index managed to stage a higher low near the 61.8% Fibonacci Re-tracement Level. It is now resting at the lower Bollinger band. The resistance level based on the 5 minute chart is at 11401. If it manages to clear this level, the next resistance is at 11440.

US Financial Sector

Dow closed at 11,824.69, down more than 200 points. The index is now very close to 11,508, the low established on Jan 22 2008.

The headlines are saying that the fall on Friday is due to credit woes and high oil prices. If you look at XLF (Select Sector SPDR-Financial), a fund that holds big financial names in US, the MACD chart is hinting on a potential reversal.



The XLF established a low of 22.13 on 11 Jun 08 and it reached a low of 21.86 on 20 Jun 08. However the MACD histogram has held above the low made on 11 Jun 08. This divergence is suggesting that a reversal is near.

However traders need to have strict discipline and stick to pre-defined stop losses in order to survive in this tough environment.

Happy trading!