VIX Indicator

Market players are waiting to see whether US officials will be able to come to an agreement to the bailout package. The market has been plagued by high volatility lately.




The VIX closed at 34.73 on Friday. It spiked to a high of 42.16 on 18 Sep. Assuming that you buy into the Dow Industrial Average when the VIX went above 40 and hold the trade for approximately 1 year, the trading result is as follows:

Entry Date	Entry Level	Exit Date	Exit Level	% Change
1-Sep-98	7583.09	7-Sep-99	11079.08	46.1
4-Sep-98	7737.32	10-Sep-99	11087.00	43.29
8-Sep-98	7964.91	13-Sep-99	11027.40	38.45
11-Sep-98	7583.61	16-Sep-99	10795.77	42.36
14-Sep-98	7936.08	17-Sep-99	10745.38	35.4
1-Oct-98	7749.42	6-Oct-99	10399.77	34.2
2-Oct-98	7631.50	7-Oct-99	10588.34	38.74
5-Oct-98	7760.75	8-Oct-99	10534.52	35.74
6-Oct-98	7733.97	11-Oct-99	10649.76	37.7
7-Oct-98	7754.82	12-Oct-99	10648.81	37.32
8-Oct-98	7734.48	13-Oct-99	10412.31	34.62
9-Oct-98	7806.57	14-Oct-99	10230.89	31.05
12-Oct-98	8038.03	15-Oct-99	10286.61	27.97
13-Oct-98	7982.68	18-Oct-99	10018.45	25.5
14-Oct-98	7925.01	19-Oct-99	10117.54	27.67
18-Sep-01	8922.70	23-Sep-02	7984.77	-10.51
20-Sep-01	8375.72	25-Sep-02	7687.16	-8.22
21-Sep-01	8356.56	26-Sep-02	7844.62	-6.13
24-Sep-01	8242.32	27-Sep-02	7996.01	-2.99
23-Jul-02	7785.55	28-Jul-03	9284.92	19.26
24-Jul-02	7698.46	29-Jul-03	9268.19	20.39
5-Aug-02	8312.92	8-Aug-03	9127.36	9.8
6-Aug-02	8049.93	11-Aug-03	9189.62	14.16
7-Aug-02	8282.25	12-Aug-03	9218.12	11.3
20-Sep-02	7945.93	25-Sep-03	9425.58	18.62
25-Sep-02	7687.16	30-Sep-03	9378.10	22
8-Oct-02	7425.82	13-Oct-03	9675.72	30.3
9-Oct-02	7499.96	14-Oct-03	9763.27	30.18
10-Oct-02	7286.34	15-Oct-03	9824.09	34.83
19-Sep-08	11027.51	Open	Open	1.05

You have a total of 30 trades with 26 ending with a profit.

Dow And VIX

There is a saying in the market that goes like this. When the VIX is high it is time to buy and when the VIX is low it is time to sell.

VIX is a volatility index created by The Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1986. It is an important gauge of market volatility.

VIX measures the implied volatility of SPX options hence it will go up when traders expect volatility to increase.

You can treat the VIX as a fear indicator. When traders are afraid that market will drop sharply, VIX will go up. The reverse is true. When traders are more complacent, thinking that market will continue to go up, VIX will be low.






The VIX closed at 23.46 on Friday.

If you look at the VIX chart, you can draw a trend line ("Blue Line") connecting the bottom formed on Oct 07, Nov 07 and Apr 08 respectively.

These 3 points marked the beginning of significant drop in the Dow Industrial Average ("Red Line").

The VIX is not painting a good picture for trading next week. So do trade with care.