Monday, December 29, 2008

Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad


We have 3 more trading days before 2008 come to a close. For the bulls, 2008 is a year to be forgotten whereas the bears had a jolly good time.

2009 looks to be another tough year for business worldwide and economists have all predicted that recovery in the economy will come in the later part of 2009. Given that fact that stock market leads the real economy, a rebound in equities should materialize before the end of the second quarter

Company like Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad, which is in the gaming industry providing digit type games like 4D, 5D, lotto etc should be able to survive the downturn.

The technical chart is showing a slightly bullish bias. The MACD had just cut above its signal line. RSI is also increasing after hitting oversold levels. +DI is above –DI and ADX is beginning to bottom out. The stock price is now riding on an upward channel. However with ADX at a low level, it does not make sense to expect a strong rally at this point.

Support is at RM 4.40 and resistance is at RM 4.80. One way to play this stock is to wait for a pullback to the RM 4.40 level and to hold for a test of RM 4.80. For example, if you decide to enter at RM 4.50, stop loss at RM 4.40 and profit target RM 4.80, that will be a risk of RM 0.10 and potential profit of RM 0.30.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Sime Darby


Sime Darby almost halved its net income target on Nov. 28 to 1.9 billion ringgit for the year to June 2009. Palm oil, the biggest contributor to profit, has tumbled and the global recession has weakened demand for houses and vehicles.
Sime Darby's revised earnings goal is about 34 percent lower than the average analyst forecast.

The technical chart looks bad. Yesterday drop was on heavy volume.

The MACD indicator is way below its signal line. ADX is creeping up and with –DI above the +DI, this may turn out to be the beginning of a downtrend.

RSI is in oversold territory but stocks that are in a downtrend will stay in oversold region for extended duration before rebounding.

The stock broke through the RM 5.45 support yesterday. This level will be the resistance for any up move from this point.

With fundamentals weak and technical chart not showing any sign of rebound, it is best to avoid the stock until a clearer picture emerges.